As we previously reported, a lock-up period prevented venture capital investors holding shares in Synspective (TYO: 290A) from selling through June 16, 2025. Today, the first day such VC investors were eligible to sell their shares, they apparently did so en masse.
Synspective had previously warned investors of high risk that VC investors would sell some or all of their shares upon lock-up lifting. Our prior assessment, that Synspective’s “current valuation might appear attractive for selling with immediacy,” apparently proved correct. Excess sell orders sent Synspective stock dropping ¥300, or 21.3%, on the morning of June 17th. The stock hit a circuit breaker, halting trading. Trading is expected to resume on June 18th, likely when institutional holders seeking selling more shares.
Prior to today’s drop, Synspective was trading with a market capitalization of ¥171.6 billion (approximately $1.2 billion). This valuation appears comparatively high: three times higher than optical imaging provider BlackSky ($363 million), despite Blacksky having six times more revenue. Furthermore, IonQ just last month purchased SAR imaging satellite manufacturer and provider Capella Space in a deal that reportedly valued Capella Space at $311 million. Capella Space had satellite propulsion problems causing prior satellites to fall from orbit early leaving them with four satellites in orbit. But they have a valuable sales agreement with the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office, and reportedly approximately three times more revenue than Synspective. By any comparison, Synspective’s market cap of $1.2 billion seems expensive. It should be no surprise institutional investors want to cash out.
Synspective is the second space stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange to hit circuit breakers in as many weeks. Ispace stock also fell, hitting circuit breakers twice on consecutive days and their Resilience moon lander crashed.
And on a related note, Synspective’s Japanese SAR satellite manufacturer cousin iQPS (TYO: 5595) trades with a market capitalization of approximately $725 million. This to is comparatively high, twice the value of BlackSky which also has approximately six times more revenue than iQPS.